SHFE tin continues to fluctuate Macro bulls and bears intertwine, restraining upside room [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

At midday on August 18, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract closed at 266,670 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, with a gain of 0.04%. During the morning trading session, it fluctuated downward, opening at 266,820 yuan/mt and declining amid fluctuations. LME tin strengthened in tandem, closing overnight at $33,600/mt, with low inventory levels continuing to support prices on the LME.

Mixed macro factors constrained upside room for tin prices. The US July PPI surged 3.3% YoY, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% MoM, reaching a three-year high, which weakened expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in September; coupled with unmet expectations from the US-Russia summit, risk aversion increased, putting pressure on crude oil and commodities. While domestic manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery, and easing real estate policies marginally boosted downstream sectors like tinplate, business confidence was slow to recover, and a full recovery in end-use consumption would take time, limiting the momentum for stable increases in tin prices.

Looking ahead to the afternoon, SHFE tin is expected to hold up well. Slow production resumptions in Myanmar and low inventory levels provided bottom support, but weak consumption and macro uncertainties capped upside room, with key variables being the progress of production resumptions in Wa State and whether emerging demand could offset weakness in traditional sectors. If macro sentiment improves or LME inventories further decline in the afternoon, prices may test the resistance level of 268,000 yuan/mt; conversely, if the US dollar rebounds or spot transactions remain sluggish, prices might pull back to the support level of 265,000 yuan/mt.